Pro overkill · consumer mobile + web Reduced visual set Wave 2/3 · cluster 6 PRD v1.0 · May 2026

Simple Odds Calculator
— mobile-first sports betting math

Mobile-first odds calculator: American / decimal / fractional conversion, payout math, parlay calculator, multi-book line comparison, vig analysis. Free with ads; $3/mo Pro for ad-free + live odds + +EV alerts. NOT a Hatchstacks Pro deployment for the core app — see §02. Same indie discipline as Calendar Widget.

Installs · M12
100k+
iOS + Android + web PWA
Pro subs · M12
1k+
~1% conversion target
Pro price
$3/mo
RevenueCat cross-platform
Target MRR · M12
$3k– $5k
+ affiliate (state-restricted)
Read §02 first if you're a Build Lead. Free tier is 100% client-side — no backend. Pro tier has a small backend for live odds + alerts. Don't over-engineer a backend for free users.
02Discipline vs Pro tier

Same framework as Calendar Widget. The Pro tier infrastructure does NOT apply to the core consumer app — there's no client to serve. But discipline applies. Note: Pro tier could apply to the Premium backend (+EV alerts) at $50k+ MRR scale — that's a Year 2+ unlock, not today.

🔴 Pro tier infrastructure · NOT used
🟢 Hatchstacks-aligned discipline · USED
✕Per-customer Mac mini. No bettor gets a Mac mini. Free tier runs on user's phone.
✓Notion for PRD, project tracking, this dashboard.
✕5-agent fleet. Standard mobile dev workflow. One developer + Cursor.
✓1Password for App Store / Play Store signing keys, OddsJam API keys, RevenueCat credentials.
✕OpenClaw + Paperclip. No agent runtime needed for a calculator app.
✓Tailnet for private repos and admin tools.
✕4-channel client contact model. Users contact us via App Store reviews or email.
✓Cursor / Claude Code for development.
✕Off-boarding ownership transfer. Nothing to transfer.
✓Git history + Sentry + Mixpanel/PostHog (opt-in) for analytics.
Future Pro tier opportunity. At $50k+ MRR scale, the +EV alerts backend could justify a dedicated Mac mini running Marketer Agent orchestration over the live odds stream. Standard cloud (FastAPI + Postgres) is the right architecture until then.
03Distribution architectureReact Native + RevenueCat · no backend for free tier

One React Native + Expo codebase ships to iOS and Android. Web is a Next.js PWA off the same shared logic. RevenueCat manages the $3/mo Pro subscription across all three platforms. OddsJam API is the only backend dependency — and only Pro users hit it.

CODEBASE · ONE STACK · 3 SURFACES React Native + Expo Shared business logic Next.js (web PWA) Same logic via shared lib RevenueCat Cross-platform subscription · syncs iOS + Android + Web entitlements DISTRIBUTION App Store · iOS "Calculator / Education" category Google Play · Android Same category Marketing site + PWA install Vercel · captures users who can't install native apps FREE TIER · 100% CLIENT-SIDE · NO BACKEND USER'S PHONE All calc runs locally No user account · no PII FEATURES · FREE Conversion · Payout · Parlay <50ms calc latency AD-SUPPORTED REVENUE (LIGHT) Banner ads only · no interstitials Modest · primary monetization is Pro upgrade ⚠ AFFILIATE LINKS (STATE-RESTRICTED) Sportsbook affiliate links shown ONLY in legal states · see §05 map PRO TIER ONLY · BACKEND APPEARS BACKEND · FASTAPI / NODE Postgres · standard cloud NOT a Mac mini · NOT agents ODDSJAM API Live multi-book odds feed $100–$500/mo · cache aggressively PRO FEATURES Multi-book compare · +EV alerts · vig-adjusted true odds Bet tracking + bankroll (stretch goal) BACKUP: BetGenius API · if OddsJam outage $3/mo Pro pricing reflects actual API cost · cost caps in place
04Free vs Pro
Feature
Free
Pro · $3/mo
Odds conversion · American / decimal / fractional / implied probability
✓
✓
Payout calculator · stake × odds = payout
✓
✓
Vig breakdown · house edge displayed
✓
✓
Parlay calculator · up to 20 legs
✓
✓
Same-game parlay correlation warnings
✓
✓
Mobile-first UI · large touch targets
✓
✓
Multi-book line comparison · OddsJam-powered
—
✓
Vig-adjusted true odds per market
—
✓
+EV edge analysis · identifies mispriced lines
—
✓
Real-time alerts on watchlist
—
✓
Ad-free experience
—
✓
Bet tracking + bankroll · Kelly Criterion (stretch)
—
✓
05State-by-state affiliate complianceSportsbook links · geofenced

Sportsbook affiliate links are regulated state-by-state. The app's affiliate features must geofence based on user location. Showing affiliate links in a banned state risks the entire app's standing with App Store and Google Play, and can trigger state regulator action. Build Lead must internalize this before Phase 4.

CA
NJ
NY
PA
IL
CO
IN
MI
VA
AZ
CT
MA
MD
NV
TN
WV
IA
KS
LA
NH
OH
OR
RI
WY
AR
DC
DE
MS
MT
NM
NC
VT
ME
KY
FL
SD
WA
MO
MN
AK
UT
ID
HI
GA
SC
AL
OK
NE
TX
WI
ClassificationColorAffiliate behavior
Sports betting fully legal + affiliate-friendly35Show affiliate links · standard tracking · revenue share
Legal but with restrictions / unclear rules12Suppress affiliate links · show calculator features only · monitor regulator updates
Sports betting banned3No affiliate links · no betting-adjacent features highlighted · pure calculator only
TBD / monitoring1Default to restricted behavior until legal review confirms
Implementation rule. IP geolocation + (where available) location services determine the user's state. Default to "restricted" if location can't be determined. Per-state behavior is updated quarterly based on legal review. The QA checks at Phase 3 release MUST verify this geofencing works correctly across the 12 restricted + 3 banned states.
Disclaimer: state classification above is a snapshot, not legal advice. Sports betting regulation is fast-moving — quarterly review with counsel is required. Some states' classification may change between PRD versions.
06Phase timeline
W1W4W12W26M12 PHASE 1Free MVP · iOS + Android + web PHASE 2Distribution · 5k installs · PH launch PHASE 3Pro tier · OddsJam · +EV alerts PHASE 4100k installs · 1k paid INSTALLS Beta + MVP 5k organic 25k installs 100k+ installs PRO SUBS 200 paid · $600–$1k MRR 1k paid · $3k–$5k MRR CONTENT SEO content · "American to decimal odds" · "what is vig" · TikTok shorts COMPLIANCE State-by-state geofencing in place from Phase 2 · quarterly legal review Free MVP shipped 5k installs · 4.5+ rating Pro tier live · 200 paid $3–5k MRR · 100k installs
07Risk heatmap

Six risks. R1 (state affiliate restrictions) and R5 (Pro conversion stuck) are the operational ones. R4 (sportsbook adds these features directly) is low-likelihood but high impact — DraftKings or FanDuel could ship multi-book comparison and instantly compete.

Low
Medium
High
Critical
High
R4
Medium
R2
R3
R6
R1
R5
Low
— Likelihood →
Risk register
R1State affiliate restrictionsPer-state compliance review · geofence affiliate features · §05 map
R2OddsJam API costs scale with usersCache aggressively · only paid tier hits live API · cost caps
R3App Store classifies as gamblingPosition as "calculator / education" · review screenshots carefully
R4Sportsbook adds these features directlyDifferentiate on neutrality + multi-book · accept that one update could end this
R5Pro conversion stuck below 2%Portfolio play · manage time investment · iterate on +EV value prop
R6Live odds spike costsCost caps · Pro pricing reflects actual cost
08Cross-project map
THIS PROJECTSimple Odds Calculator 🔴 SIBLING INDIECalendar Widget for MacSame indie discipline · App Store playbook SHARED DISCIPLINERevenueCat · StoreKit 🟢 PRO · WAVE 1ADU Directory V1State-by-state compliance pattern TRANSFERSState compliance FUTURE Y2+Pro backend on Mac miniIf +EV alerts hit $50k+ MRR scale PORTFOLIO BREADTHAll other 🟢🟡 projectsNo direct sharing Black dashed bold = shared indie discipline. Dashed = transferable. Dotted = future / portfolio breadth.
Compliance learning transfers. The state-by-state map pattern (§05) is reusable for any future portfolio project with affiliate revenue tied to regulated industries — ADU Directory state pages with regional compliance, Vacation Rental cleaner classification by state, etc.
09Glossary
Vig (Juice)
The bookmaker's margin baked into the odds. A -110/-110 line has ~4.5% vig.
+EV
Positive expected value bet. The line is mispriced in the bettor's favor. The Pro tier's core value prop.
CLV
Closing line value. A key sharp-bettor metric — did you beat the closing line?
Kelly Criterion
Mathematical bet sizing formula. Bankroll tool feature (stretch).
OddsJam / BetGenius
Real-time multi-book odds data providers. OddsJam is primary; BetGenius is backup.
RevenueCat
Cross-platform subscription manager. Syncs Pro tier entitlements across iOS, Android, and web.
PWA
Progressive Web App. Web version installable on home screen. Captures users who can't install native apps.
State geofencing
Determining user's state via IP + location services to enable/disable affiliate features.
Hatchstacks-aligned
Using discipline (Notion · 1Password · Tailnet · Cursor) without Pro tier infrastructure.
Parlay
A bet combining 2+ outcomes; all must hit to win. Parlay calculator is a free-tier flagship feature.
Sharp / Square
"Sharp" = professional/skilled bettor. "Square" = recreational. Pro tier features target sharps.
Sherlocked
When the underlying sportsbook (DraftKings · FanDuel · Caesars) adds your feature natively. R4 risk.
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